UDA Sweeps Mt Kenya By-Elections as Gachagua’s Opposition Suffers Humiliating Defeat

President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has swept all three seats contested in the Mt Kenya region’s by-elections, handing the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua-led united opposition another painful defeat.

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The ruling party won the Isiolo South parliamentary seat and two ward seats in Mbeere North, Embu County, in polls held on February 26 and characterised by notably low voter turnout.

Tubi Triumphs in Isiolo South — and in a Family Rivalry

In what became one of the more unusual contests in recent Kenyan political history, Mohamed Tubi of UDA won the Isiolo South by-election with 7,352 votes — defeating, among others, his own elder sister.

Bina Mohamed, who ran on a Jubilee Party ticket, managed just 634 votes. A third candidate, Isaack Fayo of the National Economic Development Party, who had earlier withdrawn from the race, still received 44 votes.

Returning Officer Abdi Sheikh announced the results based on votes from 60 of 61 polling stations. Votes from Garbatulla Day Secondary School were invalidated following an irregularity.

Tubi, 36, succeeds his late father, MP Tubi Bidu Mohamed, and was quick to acknowledge the moment’s weight.

“I am very pleased that we had a smooth by-election despite the low voter turnout. I thank the people of Isiolo for believing in me,” he said, also extending an olive branch to his sister after the bruising family contest.

Opposition Routed in Mbeere North

In Mbeere North, the united opposition suffered a significant setback as UDA claimed both the Evurore and Muminji ward seats.

In Evurore, UDA’s Duncan Muratia won convincingly with 7,853 votes. His closest rival, Albert Kigoro of the Democratic Party, garnered 1,940 votes, while independent candidate Johnson Mate came third with 1,753 votes.

In Muminji, UDA’s Peterson Njeru polled 3,207 votes, edging out Boniface Kariuki of the Devolution Empowerment Party, who finished second with 2,232 votes.

A Political Scorecard Ahead of 2027

The February 26 polls served as the second electoral test between the Kenya Kwanza administration and Gachagua’s coalition in the Mt Kenya region — and the results were unambiguous.

Last year, UDA narrowly defeated the opposition in the hotly contested Mbeere North parliamentary by-election. This time, the margin was wider and the sweep more complete.

For President Ruto, the results offer a measure of political relief. His popularity in the Mt Kenya region has faced headwinds since Gachagua’s impeachment, and the wins signal that Kenya Kwanza retains meaningful ground in a region that carries significant electoral weight ahead of the 2027 general election.

For Gachagua, the losses represent a second successive rebuke from Mt Kenya voters — a region he has positioned himself as the champion of. The opposition will need to regroup and rethink its strategy if it hopes to mount a credible challenge in 2027.

Low voter turnout, attributed to political apathy and the ongoing Ramadhan season, did little to help the opposition’s cause. But analysts are likely to note that where it counted, UDA’s mobilisation machine outperformed its rivals.

The Mt Kenya region, long considered a kingmaker in Kenyan presidential politics, remains firmly in Kenya Kwanza’s column — for now.

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