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Tanzania on Edge as Independence Day Transforms Into Day of Dread Amid Election Fallout

December 9, 2024 — The streets of Tanzania’s commercial capital, normally buzzing with parades and patriotic fervor on Independence Day, lay unnervingly quiet today under a heavy security blanket. This year, the anniversary of mainland Tanzania’s freedom from British rule has been stripped of official celebration, transformed instead into a national day of enforced rest and looming confrontation.

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The government of President Samia Suluhu Hassan has ordered citizens to stay home, deploying police and army units along major arteries in Dar es Salaam and the northern hub of Arusha. The directive, issued by Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba, urges citizens to “use the day for rest,” but its subtext is a stark warning against planned nationwide protests challenging the legitimacy of Hassan’s recent electoral victory.

The move caps weeks of escalating tension since the October 29 presidential election, where Hassan was declared the winner with over 97% of the vote. That result, dismissed as fraudulent by a coalition of opposition groups and civil society, triggered a wave of demonstrations met with what international monitors describe as a violent state crackdown.

Reports from Human Rights Watch and UN agencies have documented hundreds of deaths, injuries, and arbitrary arrests in the ensuing unrest. However, a recent press statement from the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) paints an even grimmer picture, alleging “credible accounts point to more than 4,000 deaths” and thousands more injured or facing politically motivated charges.

“Tanzania is now facing more than a political dispute—it is confronting a human rights crisis that is fuelled by systemic impunity, militarisation, and elite family rule,” the KHRC asserted. The group warned against allowing the nation to “descend into the cycle of failed states,” echoing sentiments from a growing number of regional observers who believe “the Constitution has been overthrown.”

The government has responded by imposing a blanket ban on all protests, branding the planned demonstrations as “the beginning of endless” unrest. Security forces have conducted pre-emptive raids, arresting political and civil society figures suspected of organizing the December 9 actions.

This domestic turmoil forms a jarring backdrop to the government’s international engagements. Just one day before the protests were announced, President Hassan met with U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Andrew Lentz. Their discussions, according to a government readout, focused on advancing multi-billion dollar economic projects, including a landmark $42 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) venture and nickel mining critical for electric vehicle batteries, all framed around a vision of “shared prosperity.”

The juxtaposition is not lost on a weary populace. “They speak of future billions while denying the bloodshed of today,” said one Dar es Salaam shop owner, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “We are told to stay home on the day we won our freedom. The meaning is clear.”

The United Nations has issued a pointed reminder to Tanzanian authorities of their “obligation to ensure the rights to freedoms of expression, peaceful assembly, and association,” calling for operations that allow citizens to exercise these rights.

As midday passes without widespread clashes reported, a tense calm holds. The government’ show of force appears to have stifled major public gatherings, but analysts warn the underlying crisis is far from resolved. Tanzania stands at a precarious crossroads, balancing the allure of transformative economic investment against increasingly vocal and urgent calls for democratic accountability and justice for the victims of the post-election violence. The silence blanketing this Independence Day may be temporary, but the questions it underscores about the nation’s future are deafening.