Kenya Weather Forecast 2026: Met Department Issues Long Rains Alert for March-May Season

Meteorological Department warns of varied rainfall patterns across Kenya as farmers urged to prepare for planting season

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued an official weather advisory alerting citizens across multiple regions to prepare for the upcoming long rains season, which is projected to commence in the second week of March 2026.

According to the comprehensive weather forecast released by the meteorological services, various regions across Kenya are expected to experience near-average to below-average rainfall, with significant variability in onset timing, geographical distribution, and precipitation intensity.

Central Kenya Rainfall Forecast: March 2026

The weather department predicts that rainfall in Central Kenya regions will begin between the second and third weeks of March 2026. Counties expected to receive these early rains include:

• Nyandarua County
• Laikipia County
• Nyeri County
• Kirinyaga County
• Murang’a County
• Kiambu County
• Meru County
• Embu County
• Tharaka Nithi County
• Nairobi County

Southeastern Lowlands Weather Prediction

For the Southeastern lowlands region of Kenya, the meteorological forecast indicates rainfall onset between the third and fourth weeks of March 2026. Affected counties in this zone include:

• Kitui County
• Makueni County
• Machakos County
• Kajiado County
• Taita Taveta County

Coastal Region Rainfall Timeline

Kenya’s coastal counties are projected to experience delayed rainfall onset compared to inland regions. According to the weather advisory, counties including Lamu, Mombasa, Kilifi, and Kwale will likely receive their first significant rains during the first, second, or third weeks of April 2026.

Northern Kenya Long Rains Forecast

The arid and semi-arid Northern counties of Kenya, including Mandera, Turkana, Isiolo, Marsabit, and Samburu, are expected to begin experiencing rainfall in the final week of March 2026, according to meteorological projections.

Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin: Early Rainfall Expected

In contrast to other regions, counties within the Rift Valley region and Lake Victoria Basin are forecast to experience earlier rainfall onset, beginning mid-February 2026 and intensifying progressively through March, April, and May.

Counties in these high-rainfall zones include:

Lake Victoria Basin: Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and Busia

Rift Valley Region: Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, and West Pokot

Agricultural Advisory: Farmers Urged to Prepare Now

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued critical guidance for farmers across the country, urging immediate farm preparation during February 2026. Agricultural experts recommend following standard preparation practices, ensuring planting holes are properly exposed to current sunshine, which naturally eliminates harmful soil microbes and pathogens.

Early farm preparation maximizes agricultural productivity and ensures optimal crop establishment when rains commence.

Current Weather Conditions Across Kenya

The rainfall forecast comes as most regions of Kenya continue experiencing prolonged dry and sunny weather conditions, characterized by extremely cold nights and elevated daytime temperatures.

January and February traditionally represent the hottest and driest months in Kenya’s annual climate cycle, typically featuring occasional light showers in Central Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin regions.

Drought Impact on Livestock Communities

The ongoing dry conditions have created severe water and pasture shortages for pastoral and livestock-keeping communities, particularly in Northern Kenya counties. Reports indicate livestock deaths due to drought stress, highlighting the urgent need for the upcoming rainfall.

Wildfire Warning Issued

As dry conditions intensify nationwide, the meteorological department has observed a significant increase in wildfire incidents across Kenya. Officials have cautioned the public against activities that could ignite fires in forested areas, game reserves, and protected conservation zones.

Citizens are urged to exercise extreme caution with:

• Open fires and campfires
• Agricultural burning practices
• Cigarette disposal
• Any activities involving flames or sparks near vegetation

Preparing for Kenya’s 2026 Long Rains Season

Kenyans across all affected regions are advised to:

• Monitor official weather updates from the Kenya Meteorological Department
• Prepare water harvesting infrastructure
• Clear drainage systems to prevent flooding
• Follow agricultural calendars for optimal planting times
• Stock emergency supplies in flood-prone areas
• Report wildfire incidents immediately to authorities

For the latest weather forecasts, rainfall updates, and climate advisories, citizens should follow official Kenya Meteorological Department communications through verified government channels.

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