Cherargei’s Bold Prediction: By-Election Results Show Opposition Has No Chance in 2027

Nandi Senator declares UDA sweep of mini-polls signals opposition defeat, names Kalonzo, Gachagua among “biggest losers”

NAIROBI – Nandi Senator Kiprotich Arap Cherargei has declared that the outcome of Wednesday’s by-elections confirms President William Ruto and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki will cruise to an easy victory in the 2027 General Elections.

Writing on Thursday, November 28, the vocal UDA senator characterized the results from the 22 electoral contests as definitive proof that the ruling coalition will dominate the next presidential race, securing Ruto’s second term without significant challenge.

UDA Triumphs Across Multiple Seats

Cherargei’s triumphalist assessment followed the conclusion of by-elections held across Kenya on November 27, where vacancies in parliamentary, senatorial, and county assembly positions were contested. The United Democratic Alliance and its broad-based government partners secured victories in key battleground constituencies.

The senator offered congratulations to all successful candidates aligned with the administration, crediting their wins to what he described as resilience, determination, hard work, and unwavering commitment throughout the campaign period.

“The results mark absolute confidence by Kenyans in UDA,” Cherargei stated, singling out President Ruto, Deputy President Kindiki, and broad-based coalition partners as the primary beneficiaries of Wednesday’s electoral outcomes.

Opposition Leaders Named as Losers

In a pointed assessment that is certain to inflame political tensions, Senator Cherargei compiled a list of prominent opposition figures he characterized as the “biggest losers” in the by-elections.

His list included Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, former Attorney General Justin Muturi, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The inclusion of such high-profile names suggests Cherargei views the by-elections as a proxy battle between the government and an emerging opposition coalition, with Wednesday’s results delivering a decisive verdict in favor of the administration.

IEBC Conducts Smooth Elections

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission oversaw the mini-polls on November 27, with voting stations operating from 6:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. across the 22 contested areas. Vote counting commenced immediately after polls closed, with tallying conducted at constituency and ward levels.

IEBC Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon praised all stakeholders for maintaining adherence to electoral timelines established in the August 2025 gazette notice. The generally smooth conduct of the elections provided both sides with clean results to analyze for their political implications.

Reading the Tea Leaves for 2027

Cherargei’s interpretation of the by-election results reflects a broader government narrative that portrays the Ruto-Kindiki administration as politically ascendant and the opposition as fractured and ineffective.

By framing relatively small-scale by-elections as harbingers of the 2027 presidential contest, the senator appears to be engaging in early psychological warfare designed to demoralize opposition forces and project an image of invincibility around the current administration.

However, political analysts caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from by-elections, which typically feature lower turnout and different dynamics than general elections. Local issues, candidate personalities, and voter mobilization efforts often play outsized roles in such contests.

Opposition Response Anticipated

The senator’s provocative characterization of opposition leaders as losers is likely to draw sharp responses from the named individuals, particularly former Deputy President Gachagua, who has been vocally critical of the administration in recent weeks.

Several of the politicians on Cherargei’s list maintain significant regional bases of support and have been positioning themselves as potential challengers or kingmakers ahead of the 2027 elections. They are unlikely to accept the senator’s narrative without mounting a vigorous rebuttal.

The Long Road to 2027

While Senator Cherargei projects confidence about the ruling coalition’s prospects, the political landscape remains fluid with more than a year remaining before the next general election.

Economic conditions, governance performance, coalition dynamics, and the opposition’s ability to mount a unified challenge will all factor significantly into the ultimate outcome. Wednesday’s by-elections may provide talking points for both sides, but they represent only an early skirmish in what promises to be a hard-fought battle for Kenya’s presidency.

For now, the government will take satisfaction in the by-election results, while the opposition regroups to contest Cherargei’s bold prediction that 2027 is already decided.