Can ODM Survive Without Raila? MP Caleb Amisi Suggests Many Cannot

NAIROBI, Kenya – Saboti Member of Parliament Caleb Amisi has stirred Kenya’s political landscape with startling predictions about the fate of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) politicians in the 2027 general elections, while casting doubt on President William Ruto’s reelection prospects.

Speaking candidly on the popular “Obina Live” podcast on Tuesday, the outspoken legislator delivered a blunt assessment of his party’s electoral viability, suggesting that numerous ODM politicians face almost certain defeat in the upcoming polls.

Dependence on Raila’s Influence

Amisi attributed this predicted downfall to what he characterized as overreliance on party leader Raila Odinga’s political influence rather than substantive governance records.

“Many ODM politicians had no tangible manifestos and depended entirely on Raila Odinga for reelection,” Amisi asserted. “The reality is that most politicians simply waited for Baba to ask voters to support them. With his political influence potentially waning, I foresee many of these politicians failing to secure votes based on their own merit.”

Direct Challenge to Governor Wanga

In his most specific prediction, Amisi singled out Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga as particularly vulnerable. “Governor Wanga will be the first to go home,” he stated unequivocally. “The Governor primarily leveraged Raila’s name to get elected rather than establishing her own development record.”

The MP’s comments come amid persistent rumors that President Ruto was considering Governor Wanga as a potential running mate in the 2027 elections—a prospect Amisi dismissed as politically unwise.

Presidential Election Prognosis

Amisi extended his critical analysis to the national stage, expressing skepticism about President Ruto’s reelection chances. “President Ruto will not get reelected,” he predicted, adding that “selecting Gladys Wanga as his running mate would further complicate his already difficult path to victory.”

The Saboti MP’s remarks represent one of the most direct public challenges from within ODM ranks regarding the party’s future strategy and the perceived dependence on its veteran leader.

Political Reactions

As news of Amisi’s comments spread, political analysts noted the significance of such candid criticism coming from within ODM itself. “This reflects growing internal concerns about succession planning and the need for elected officials to establish independent political identities beyond the Raila brand,” observed political analyst Dr. Marianne Nyong’o.

Neither Governor Wanga’s office nor ODM party officials had issued formal responses to Amisi’s statements at the time of publication.

The podcast interview has ignited vigorous debate across social media platforms and political circles, with many speculating about potential realignments within Kenya’s opposition framework as the country moves closer to the next election cycle.

Amisi’s bold predictions underscore the evolving dynamics within Kenyan politics as parties grapple with leadership transitions and the challenge of maintaining relevance in a rapidly changing political landscape.

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