UDA’s Muthende Leads with 51% in Mbeere North as Kenya Heads to Polls Wednesday

With just days until voters head to the polls, new surveys show a mixed picture for Kenya’s ruling party ahead of by-elections that political observers say could signal broader trends heading into the 2027 general election.

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Polls conducted by Mizani Africa and Timely Kenya indicate United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidates hold advantages in several key races, most notably in Mbeere North where Leonard Muthende commands a 51 percent lead. However, the opposition appears poised for victory in Malava, where Seth Panyako is polling ahead of his rivals.

The November 27 by-elections will determine the holders of one Senate seat in Baringo County, six parliamentary constituencies including Malava and Mbeere North, and 17 county assembly ward seats across the country.

Beyond their immediate significance, these contests have taken on heightened political importance as a proxy battle between President William Ruto’s administration and a coalition aligned with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose impeachment earlier this year has reshaped the country’s political landscape.

UDA supporters point to the party’s focused grassroots mobilization efforts and messaging centered on development projects and service delivery as factors driving their performance in several constituencies. The party has deployed significant resources to these races, viewing them as crucial tests of its organizational strength and public support midway through Ruto’s first term.

However, political analysts caution against drawing premature conclusions from the polling data. Voter turnout, they note, will be critical in determining final outcomes, and by-elections historically see lower participation rates than general elections. Local factors, candidate appeal, and last-minute campaign dynamics could all shift results on election day.

“These by-elections are important barometers, but they’re just that — indicators rather than definitive statements,” said one political commentator who requested anonymity. “What happens on Wednesday will give us clues about voter sentiment, but interpreting those clues requires caution.”

The contests come at a pivotal moment for Kenya’s political establishment, with both the government and opposition viewing the results as potential momentum-builders ahead of the 2027 presidential race. Strong performances could embolden respective coalitions and influence strategic calculations about alliances and candidate selection in the coming years.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has confirmed that preparations for the by-elections are complete, with polling stations set to open at 6:00 AM on Wednesday across all affected constituencies and wards.

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