Ruto Poised for Historic Landslide as Opposition Faces Electoral Wipeout – The Star

Nairobi, November 18, 2025 – President William Ruto is projected to secure strongholds in 30 to 35 counties in the 2027 general election, according to a comprehensive voter analysis by The Star newspaper based on the 2022 electoral register.

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The forecast, analyzing the anticipated 22 million-voter race, suggests the incumbent president could make significant inroads into traditional opposition territory, particularly in Nyanza, if the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) endorses his re-election bid.

Electoral Battleground Takes Shape

The analysis positions rivals Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to target their respective regional strongholds of Ukambani and Central Kenya, setting up fierce contests in key battleground areas including Nairobi and coastal regions.

The projections come as political realignments continue to reshape Kenya’s electoral landscape, with traditional coalition patterns showing signs of significant shifts ahead of the polls.

ODM Alliance Could Tip Balance

Dennis Onyango, former spokesman for veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, has publicly advocated for ODM to back President Ruto for the sake of national stability, a position that has sparked intense debate within opposition circles and on social media platforms.

Such an endorsement would potentially deliver crucial votes from Nyanza and other ODM strongholds, significantly bolstering the president’s re-election prospects and fundamentally altering the electoral mathematics that have defined Kenyan politics for decades.

Political analysts emphasize that youth turnout and shifting coalition dynamics will be critical factors in determining the final outcome, particularly as demographic changes reshape the voter register.

Kibaso Warns Against Tribal Politics

Responding to The Star’s analysis, prominent activist Morara Kibaso issued a scathing critique of the opposition’s strategy, arguing that reliance on ethnic arithmetic has already undermined efforts to challenge the incumbent.

“The moment we the youth surrendered our battle to the opposition to turn it into a tribal arithmetic of which tribal combination has more numbers, I knew we have lost,” Kibaso wrote in a lengthy post on X (formerly Twitter). “No one can defeat a sitting president by using tribal matrix, especially if he has over 200 billion budget for his campaign.”

The activist contended that President Ruto would simply “buy all the tribal kingpins except the tribe that hates him passionately” and successfully run a campaign positioning the opposition as representing a single ethnic group.

Kibaso suggested the opposition understands this dynamic and is positioning for post-election negotiations rather than victory. “They know even if they lose, their parties will have MPs and they will negotiate with Ruto in 2028,” he argued.

The Accountability Alternative

The activist proposed that focusing on accountability rather than ethnic coalitions would have been a more effective strategy against the president.

“He cannot account for money, he cannot account for lives lost, he cannot account for diplomatic blunders,” Kibaso wrote, arguing that an issue-based campaign would have exposed the administration’s vulnerabilities more effectively than tribal arithmetic.

Despite his pessimistic assessment, Kibaso noted that two years remain for a strategic recalibration. “We can still discover our mistakes and make a comeback. But if we don’t, we will watch tragedy on television in 2027 and the swearing in of a person we will not be sure if he can vacate power after this.”

Social Media Debate Intensifies

The Star’s projections and Kibaso’s commentary have triggered widespread debate on X, with users criticizing what they describe as the dominance of tribal politics and media bias in electoral coverage.

Critics argue that the focus on ethnic coalition-building perpetuates historical patterns that have prevented issue-based political competition in Kenya, while supporters of the traditional approach maintain that ethnic arithmetic remains the most reliable predictor of electoral outcomes.

Expert Perspectives

Political scientists note that while ethnic voting patterns have historically dominated Kenyan elections, emerging factors including generational shifts, urbanization, and economic concerns are gradually reshaping the political landscape.

The 2027 race appears set to test whether these new dynamics can overcome traditional ethnic mobilization, particularly if opposition forces unite around accountability and governance issues rather than purely ethnic coalitions.

As parties position themselves ahead of the official campaign period, the tension between issue-based politics and ethnic arithmetic will likely define not only the electoral outcome but also the future direction of Kenyan democracy.

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